How Penny Recon ranks penny items
The list is sorted by a single number, the penny score. It is meant to answer one question: if you scan this item today, how likely is it to ring $0.01? Here is what goes into it, and what deliberately does not.
What raises a score
- More reports. Each additional confirmed penny report adds weight, with diminishing returns, so the tenth report matters less than the second.
- More states. Reports spread across many states suggest an item has reached the end of its markdown nationally rather than at one store.
- Independent agreement. An item confirmed by more than one independent source gets a bonus. One list repeating itself is not corroboration.
- Momentum. Growth in the report count over the last three days counts for more than a large total that has stopped moving. Climbing items are marked Rising.
- Checked evidence. When we have verified a receipt or a shelf photo ourselves, the item gets a boost that fades over two weeks.
- Reader reports. A penny scan reported on this site adds to the score. A full-price scan subtracts from it.
Recency: the seven-day half-life
Every item's weight halves for each 7 days since its last confirmed penny scan. An item last confirmed a week ago keeps half its weight; two weeks ago, a quarter; four weeks ago, about a sixteenth. That is the single biggest factor in the ranking, because penny windows close as stores work their pull lists, and an old report is a much weaker signal than a fresh one.
Take the item at the top of the list as this page was built: 800 Lumen LED Rechargeable Detachable Tripod Work Light (SKU 1012-388-248). It has 38 community reports across 13 states, 1 independent source, and its last confirmed penny scan was 0 days ago. That combination gives it a penny score of 104 and a Hot tier. If nobody reports it again, its score will roughly halve over the next 7 days and it will drift down the list on its own.
Tiers
- Hot: a confirmed penny within the last three days, backed by several reports, states or sources.
- Active: a confirmed penny within the last two weeks.
- Fading: last confirmed two to six weeks ago.
- Archived: no confirmation in over six weeks, or recent reader reports of full price. Kept in the archive for the record.
Likelihood labels
The High, Medium and Low likelihood labels are bands of the penny score. They are relative, not probabilities: a High item is among the best bets on the list today, not a guarantee. Penny status is decided store by store, so even the top item will ring full price somewhere.
What we do not do
- We never invent a SKU, a price or a report count. If a source does not give a field, it stays blank.
- Retail prices appear only when they were printed on a tag, a receipt or the product listing.
- A single uncorroborated report stays on the list as a lead, but it does not get its own page until something backs it up.
- Items nobody has been able to identify are held back until they can be matched to a real product. See how products are identified.